Financial insights for the week ending October 23, 2026
For the week ending October 23rd, markets finished mixed, with the S&P 500 finishing lower by 0.5%, the Nasdaq fell 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 ending the week up 2.2%.
The Federal Reserve meets next week, and the market has largely made up its mind about the outcome. According to the CME FedWatch Tool as of Friday, October 23rd, the odds of a rate pause were 91.7%. After raising rates in September for the first time in three years, several officials spent the early part of this month saying that they wanted more data before moving again. Those same markets pricing in a pause next week see a 72% chance of a quarter-point increase at the December, which suggests this cycle isn’t quite finished. This week’s economic calendar was quiet compared to previous weeks, with a soft housing starts number on Tuesday the only major surprise. Because of that, most of investors’ focus was on earnings, which have been good, albeit with lofty expectations. With roughly a quarter of large companies now reported, the share beating expectations is running at its best pace in about four years, and profit growth is tracking to near 10%. It appears solid corporate results are doing much of the heavy lifting holding this market up while the rate picture stays variable. Separately, and worth noting for our retired clients, Social Security announced a 3.6% cost of living adjustment for 2027, the largest in five years. That amounts to about $75 per month for the average retiree beginning in January. A welcome increase, though it exists because of the same inflation that has been taking more out of your bank accounts all year, so it is less of a raise than the headline suggests.
Next week macroeconomic calendar carries some real weight. The Fed’s two-day meeting wraps Wednesday with their rate decision at 2pm and Chair Warsh’s press conference at 2:30. At this point, a pause on hikes is the almost certainly priced into the market, and when this is the case, the market will focus on the language the Fed presents in their remarks. Thursday morning then delivers two data sets at 8:30, with the first estimate of third quarter GDP arriving alongside personal income and spending, which carries the inflation measure the Fed weighs most heavily. Earnings season continues at full speed throughout both this past week and the week upcoming.
This week’s tip comes with a year-end deadline. If you are 73 or older, the IRS requires you to take a minimum distribution (or RMD) from your retirement accounts by December 31st. Our Director of Service, Patrick, is working through accounts now to make sure every required distribution is satisfied well before year end, and most of you will hear from him directly. If you’re not sure whether you’ve taken your RMD or have questions about how much yours is, reach out to Patrick and he will answer all your questions. And if you see a call from our office over the next several weeks that you were not expecting, odds are high it is him on the other end!
Enjoy your day! Come back next Saturday for our latest commentary. We are here to answer any of your financial questions.