Financial insights for the week ending October 17, 2025
For the week ending October 17th, the S&P 500 rose by 1.70%, the NASDAQ was up 2.14%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.56%, and the Russell 2000 inflated by 2.40%.
This week saw markets recover about 2/3rd of the previous week's losses but was marked by a rise in volatility as global trade tensions, credit worries, and the ongoing government shutdown weighed on markets. The S&P 500 managed to close higher, but gains were uneven and came with very sharp daily swings. Trade tensions escalated after the U.S. and China both enacted new port fees on each other’s ships beginning October 14th. The U.S. now charges roughly $46 per net ton for Chinese vessels, while China responded with a fee of about $56 per net ton on American ships. While these charges might sound minor, they add millions in new costs for shipping firms and have already pushed freight rates higher by nearly 13% this week, according to reports (see link below). The back-and-forth highlights how both nations are using trade logistics as a new front in their economic rivalry. China's near-monopoly on rare earth metals and new restrictions on its trade is also causing ruffled feathers in the global economy. In the banking sector, six company failures over the past few weeks have made headlines - mostly tied to auto loan and supply-chain financing losses. The two biggest names, First Brands Group and Tricolor Auto, have revealed large exposures that rippled through the financial system. JPMorgan Chase reported a $170 million write-off linked to Tricolor but said the loss was manageable. However, smaller regional banks were hit harder, falling about 1% for the week as investors grew concerned that subprime auto loan losses could spread. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown entered its third week, with no resolution in sight. With most federal data delayed, markets are flying somewhat blind on economic indicators like jobs and inflation, raising uncertainty heading into earnings season. Bottom line, the market is holding steady, but investors are on edge. Rising shipping costs, early signs of credit stress, and limited economic data are creating a heavy-breathing environment. While large institutions like JPMorgan remain strong, smaller lenders and global trade routes are feeling the squeeze. Until Washington resolves the shutdown and U.S.–China trade talks cool down, volatility is likely to stay elevated.
After a volatile stretch driven by shipping disputes, bank stress, and the prolonged government shutdown, the focus shifts next week back to earnings season and a key inflation report that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move. Several major companies are set to report earnings this coming week, including Netflix and Tesla. Investors will be paying close attention to Tesla, which has faced a challenging year of declining sales and rising competition in the electric vehicle market. The expiration of the federal EV tax credit on September 30th removed a major incentive for buyers, adding to pressure on the company’s margins and demand outlook. Management will need to convince investors that Tesla can maintain growth without relying on government subsidies. On the macroeconomic front, a rare data release amid the ongoing government shutdown will come Friday when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is published. This update will be critical for setting expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. Markets currently anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, but if inflation comes in softer than expected, the Fed could move more aggressively with a 0.5% reduction. In short, the coming week will be a test of confidence, both for corporate America and the broader economy. Strong earnings could help offset recent volatility, but a weak CPI report or disappointing results from high-profile companies could easily tip sentiment the other way.
For the financial tip of the week, it’s open enrollment season, which means it’s the right time to review your Medicare coverage and employer benefits before the new plan year begins. If you’re 65 or older, you can make changes to your Medicare plans between October 15 and December 7. Compare your current plan’s premiums, drug coverage, and provider networks with next year’s options; even if you’re satisfied with your plan, verifying it against new offerings could save hundreds of dollars next year. 2026 is proving to be a major change for Medicare, and it a very important year to review your plan and the changes that is expected for 2026. For those still working, review your employer’s benefits package during open enrollment. Pay attention to: (1) Health insurance options – Check if your plan’s deductible or co-pays are changing. (2) Flexible spending accounts (FSA) or Health Savings Accounts (HSA) contributions. (3) Life and disability insurance: Make sure your coverage levels still meet your family’s needs. A 30-minute review now can prevent costly surprises later and ensure you’re fully taking advantage of available tax and coverage benefits. Port Fees Link
Enjoy your day! Come back next Saturday for our latest commentary. We are here to answer any of your financial questions.